10 Sports Writers and Their 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Predictions

Ten writers and I discussed about who we think will win the next NBA Rookie of the Year award

My first ever collaboration post with multiple writers!

Thank you Jacob Sutton, Nic Thomas, Smayan Srikanth, Neil Paine, Joseph George, Quinn Everts, Parker Fleming, Dallin Murphy, and Mike Javid, for collaborating with me on this amazing article.

So now, let’s begin, here are ten writers and their Rookie of the Year predictions.

Jacob Sutton

- JSutt Hoops

In reality, it’s pretty tough to predict Rookie of The Year, even in a “normal” year, if there is such a thing. This year is especially difficult considering that the #1 pick isn’t even widely considered to be the best player from the draft, especially when taking into account ceiling, physical attributes, and more.

So in the spirit of throwing darts at the metaphorical board, I’m going to go with a guy I’ve been high on throughout the draft cycle: Matas Buzelis. Buzelis provides an interesting combination of ball handling, height, and defense, with some self-creation thrown in there for good measure.

At his peak, he was in contention for the #1 pick, yet he saw his stock slide via being associated with the defunct G-League Ignite team. However, with few other young players on the Bulls taking up minutes, Buzelis has a chance to do what most ROTY winners do: get up a lot of shots and be a primary offensive weapon. With little expectations from the Bulls this season, Matas has the keys to make his case.

Nic Thomas

- The Nic Thomas Substack

The 2024-25 Rookie Of the Year may be the most confusing and conflicting race in recent memory. Usually, you can point at whoever came off the board first and remark 'Yeah, he went first, he must be the best player, right?'

Well, this season, the first player off the board was a three-and-defense wing who can't create his own shot. Hmph.

Ok, so who's next in line? Alex Sarr went to the Wizards. If you had asked me on draft day, Sarr would likely be my pick. However, Troy Weaver spent $90 million on bigs this free agency, which leads me to doubt how much opportunity the Frenchman will get. Hmph.

Third? Reed Sheppard was selected by the Houston Rockets. If you had asked me before the draft who would win, if not Sarr, I would likely have suggested Sheppard. However, he will likely be playing behind Fred Vanvleet this season. Hmph.

If you look any further, the vast majority of selections were stabs in the dark, such as Charlotte selecting Tidjane Salaun, or the Pistons selecting Ron Holland. So beyond three, there really isn't much to look for.

And so once more, there were three. If I had to take my pick, it would be Reed Sheppard. Why? Who doesn't love an undersized guard who can pull up from thirty feet, throw lobs, and shows more energy on defense than any of his able-bodied counterparts. Ok, maybe that last part was a bit much.

The point is, with so little to differentiate between prospects, this race will come down to narrative. And there is no better way to spread narratives than by a bunch of highlights on a good team.

Smayan Srikanth

- Sports Square

The draft. It wasn't the best draft. Obviously, the 2025 draft is going to be way better than this year's, but we still had many interesting prospects that could still become NBA superstars. Now, to the ROY award.

Many say Alexandre Sarr is the one. I think he is going to be a close second place. Zach Edey had a wonderful first Summer League Game posting up a double-double. He even forced OT with a last-second tip-in! Sure, it could be beginners luck, but with what he did at Purdue, and what he has already, I feel like he's the readymade player. He's also going to get as many touches as Sarr will in Washington. In fact, Edey may get even more.

I could definitely be wrong. Maybe Sarr could run away with it, but Sarr still needs to develop a few things. A real example would be his outside shot. He's not going to do all of that in his first year. Period.

Neil Paine

- Neil’s Substack

I'm going to go with Alex Sarr. He wasn't the No. 1 overall pick, but he was the favorite to be the No. 1 pick for a long time before the selection was actually made. (I have no data on this, but my guess is that those players might be better off in the long run because they're not boosted to No. 1 by an irrational pre-draft hype train.) His profile -- a lanky 7-footer who can make an immediate defensive impact as a rim protector and switcher, while also being able to serve as a rim-runner/lob-finisher in the pick-and-roll on offense -- is an archetype that has found a lot of success across the modern NBA big-man landscape.

And it's not like the Wizards are going to bury him on the depth chart... he's going to get his minutes as a 19-year-old rookie. Maybe the only part that might hold him back is that the guys he'll be playing that finisher role with in the Washington offense are Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma -- not exactly the hoops visionaries you want to count on to feed you the ball in the right place at the right time. Still, Sarr is second in FanDuel's RoY odds (https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nba?tab=awards) behind Zach Edey, another fascinating option (but one I can't pick because I'm concerned about his speed/quickness and conditioning at the NBA level).

Dallin Murphy

- Dallin’s Substack

My ROTY prediction: Stephon Castle This draft has been described as a role player draft, with no one appearing to have clear, star upside. So, unlike many other years, this ROTY is EXTREMELY hard to predict! There needs to be opportunity for the player combined with their readiness to take advantage of it.  There aren’t many teams that have a clean, ready starting spot for the rookie coming in. The Jazz may give that to Cody Williams, the Bulls with Matas Buzelis, and the Grizzlies with Zach Edey. I suspect that Risacher and Sarr will get ample playing time, but Risacher is pretty limited in his skill set right now and Sarr is very raw still. The last one I considered is Stephon Castle, with the UConn prestige and the defense-first role player mindset he brings.

So… picking between Buzelis and Castle, I will go with Castle. This will likely be similar to the 2016 ROTY when a role player won the award, and analytics will be on his side. I suspect that he will get plenty of open 3’s, learn from Chris Paul, and put up something like 11/6/4 with 2 steals per game on decent shooting. In the age of analytics, he will be beloved by many. Or, at least, that’s my prediction.

Joseph George

- The Zone Master

The weakness of this year’s draft doesn’t always have to result in a weak ROTY race, but historically, that has been the case. Both of the 2014 and 2001 ROTY winners never made a future All-Star team nor popped on any advanced metrics. However, I’ll take a stab at this one and go with the big fella from West Lafayette: Zach Edey. Edey wouldn’t be your normal modern Rookie of the Year - the last time a traditional big (a center that shoots less than one three a game) won Rookie of the Year was in 2005 - when Emeka Okafor took the award after putting up solid stats on a dismal Charlotte Bobcats team.

Since then, only Karl-Anthony Towns and Wembanyama have won the awards as centers. That’s three centers in twenty years - the worst of any group. So why Edey? If I’m gauging impact, winning, and statistical production - I think only a few rookies stand a chance - and Edey is the only one that will have all three. It’s a crude way to measure it, but oftentimes, that’s how these awards work. I can see Edey gaining the starting role on the Grizzlies early into the season, and he’s a sublime fit next to JJJ and Ja. His impact as a screener will not go unnoticed, and he’ll likely be one of the leader in screen assists for a fast Grizzlies team. There are other contenders for the award of course - I think Reed Sheppard and Alex Sarr will both have solid

cases for the award. Reed will be a contributor but I wonder if he will get enough offensive focus, while Sarr might not be as impactful but will have statistically solid numbers. In addition, Edey’s expected VORP (from Henry NBA Draft on Twitter) is the highest of any rookie. There are questions of course. Will he hold up guarding in space? I think a lot of the concerns about Edey’s defensive mobility have been overblown - he turned a corner this past year.

Summer league is summer league, but he ran the floor pretty well in that first game against the Utah Jazz - and outplayed Walker Kessler as well, who finished third in ROTY voting in 2023. All in all, I think Edey is a solid bet - and one I would make quickly, as he’s already entered as the favorite in most sportsbooks.

Quinn Everts

- The Broken Press

This rookie class is an enigma, so guessing a Rookie of the Year is just that– a guess. No rookie separates himself as the obvious choice, meaning my criteria for picking ROY comes down to a combination of opportunity, NBA-ready skill, and (as a tie-breaker) team success.

I’m tempted to pick Rob Dillingham. He’s on a great team in Minnesota so he’ll be in the public conscience, his on-ball defense and three-point shooting should both translate immediately, and he won’t shoulder too much of a burden to where his efficiency numbers will be dragged down by a heavy workload. But Minnesota has high aspirations next season which makes me hesitant; Chris Finch doesn’t need to play Dillingham, so he might not see enough floor time to win it. I’m tempted to pick Reed Sheppard for almost the exact same reasons, and the uncertainty in Houston’s backcourt gives Sheppard a slight edge over Dillingham here. Still, there’s not a gaping hole in Houston, and the uncertainty comes after starters Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green.

Stephon Castle is my pick to win Rookie of the Year. 39 year-old Chris Paul can’t be counted on to play an entire season and I think Castle will get plenty of opportunity in San Antonio. Pair that with a Spurs team who will be leaps better than last season and Castle’s proclivity for stuffing the stat sheet, and I think you end up with a prime opportunity to capture the award. Back-to-back ROY awards on the same team might give some voters pause, but I think Castle contributes from day one and seeks out first place in a tightly contested race.

Parker Fleming

- SubTsakalidis (SubTsak), a Memphis Grizzlies Substack

This Rookie of the Year race is the toughest to gauge. The top picks Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr might be too raw to put up the necessary numbers on a mediocre team. Reed Sheppard is behind a veteran point guard. I’m going to roll with Zach Edey. Edey is in the best position to secure the Rookie of the Year award. He’s likely the starting center. His role is quite simple, and he has the production and skillset that’s projectable to an instant impact. The pick-and-roll with Ja Morant could quickly become a staple in the Grizzlies’ offense — and he can sneakily have a sweet dynamic with sharpshooter Desmond Bane. Scoring on Edey and Jackson inside might be impossible.

Even if Edey averages roughly 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game on a 50+ win team, he’s going to garner attention for Rookie of the Year. And with the lack of clearcut cornerstone in this class, that threshold might be enough for Edey to win Rookie of the Year.

Mike Javid

- Mike’s Substack

While this is one of the weakest drafts in NBA history, tons of players have potential to win Rookie of the Year in Alex Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, Zach Edey, Stephon Castle, and Reed Sheppard. All guys should play from day one. Who will win however is a different question. A lot plays into predicting who will win the Rookie of the Year with statistics, impact, and role. Unlike most seasons, there is not a clear winner.

Zach Edey has become an early favorite to win the award with his 7 '4 size and shot blocking. He will be on a good Grizzlies team with Ja Morant back and should get a ton of minutes at center. Reed Sheppard has impressed for his first two games of Summer League, scoring 22.5 PPG on elite shooting splits. While it is just Summer League and you can take it with a grain of salt, it is a good sign for the Rockets.

Stephon Castle has joined Victor Wembanyama and Gregg Popovich in San Antonio. Starting his career with one of the best cultures in the NBA will mean a lot to Castle. The guard is an elite point of attack defender, arguably the best in the class and is NBA ready. Zaccharie Risacher was the first pick in the Draft and is a versatile forward. He can shoot the three, shooting 42.4% from that distance. He is NBA ready and the Hawks should compete with Trae Young, especially with how weak the bottom-half of the Eastern Conference is.

A fellow French man in Alex Sarr is ready to show the world how talented he is in Washington. Sarr can shoot the three decently for a big and is the best interior defender in the class. He will have a ton of opportunity in Washington and normally, the rookie with the most opportunity will win the award. My early prediction for the 2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year is Sarr. He was the second pick in the 2024 NBA Draft and many thought he would be the top pick before he declined a workout with the Atlanta Hawks. He has always been my top prospect with his defensive ability and he should have a fun career.

Jack Zucker

- Jack’s Thoughts

It may be early, but if I had to pick my 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year based on each rookie’s past experiences with the game of basketball, I know who I’m picking.

As the other writers mentioned earlier, this is the first draft in a while where we mostly agree the number one overall pick won’t win the award. Players like Alex Sarr, Reed Sheppard, and even Tijade Salaun may have a better season and chance to win than Atlanta Hawk Zaccharie Risacher.

I’m not saying Risacher is going to be a horrible player, I’m just saying some other guys in his class aren’t as raw as prospects, and we know they can be better than him. But who knows? The season hasn’t even started yet, and it won’t for a while.

So now, sharing my pick, I have Alex Sarr winning the award. Sarr would’ve been the number one overall pick if he had actually worked out for the Hawks. I think because Sarr played in Australia and has experience playing in Overtime Elite, he will be immediately adjusted to the league and will show how it was a big mistake that the Hawks passed on him.

At the end of his rookie campaign, Sarr will finish with twelve points and double-digit rebounds as well as a few blocks. This is just my projection for him, but I really believe that if he reaches his full potential, he can turn out to be similar to a Jaren Jackson Jr. or Rudy Gobert-type player who makes a big impact on a high-level team.

Alex Sarr: 3 Votes

Matas Buzelis: 1 Vote

Zach Edey: 3 Votes

Stephon Castle: 2 Votes

Reed Sheppard: 1 Vote

Tie Between Edey and Sarr For Most Votes